AS OF THE END OF WEEK 14

The 2025 season has been one of the most unpredictable campaigns in recent memory, with the NFL’s perennial powerhouses in the Chiefs and Ravens, along with 2024’s largest surprise in the Washington Commanders, falling completely out of the playoff picture. On the flip side, the Jaguars, Bears, 49ers, and Patriots were all sub-.500 teams in 2024 with top-eleven draft picks this offseason. Each of these franchises has ascended this season, as each would make the playoffs if the season were to end today. The unexpected risers and fallers have made 2025 a one-of-a-kind season. While previously underperforming teams rose to the occasion, resulting in an extraordinary and one-of-a-kind season. 

Sports fans love a good underdog story, and most wouldn’t mind the former powerhouses, such as the Chiefs, being sidelined this postseason, but ultimately, the past is the past. What truly matters now, this time of year, is who these playoff-bound teams are at this very moment, and if they can effectively ride their strengths into a deep playoff push. For some teams, their weaknesses will inevitably be exposed when facing tough playoff competition. For others, however, their showcased abilities are seemingly enough to push through to a possible Super Bowl victory. Here are two teams I believe possess the ability to effectively bring home the Lombardi Trophy, and two more that will certainly have their faults exploited. Which teams are frauds and which are legitimate? Find out right here, right now.

FRAUD: New England Patriots.

I know, I know. The number one seed in a packed AFC are frauds? Sounds crazy, but it’s actually an extremely justifiable assumption. Although the Patriots are 11-2, their scheduled opponents are rather weak. They have the third-easiest schedule with a .429 average record percentage in the league, with a combined opponent record of 28-76. Although they are just getting it done against their previously given opponents, the quality of their opposition raises skepticism that they can get it done against the AFC’s best. 

Another noteworthy detail about this team is the lack of playoff experience among the offense. Other than their star receiver Stefon Diggs, their offense is extremely young, with an average age of 26, leaving a deep playoff push extremely questionable; experience can go a long way, especially in the war of attrition that playoff football is. 

It is worth noting that second-year quarterback Drake Maye is playing exceptional football, averaging a little over 200 passing yards a game and 1.77 passing TDs a game, leading his offense to the eighth-best overall. Meanwhile, the defense is rated seventh overall, led by star third-year defensive back Christian Gonzalez, complementing them well. Nevertheless, the lack of proven wins against elite teams and an inexperienced core leaves me skeptical about a real run at the championship game, as I believe one more year of play is needed to truly develop this team to its full potential.

TRUE CONTENDERS: Houston Texans

I’m sure you’re familiar with the famous phrase “defense wins championships.” Well, the Houston Texans embody this motto perfectly, carrying an average offense to eight wins and a relatively good chance at the AFC South title. After beginning the year with three straight losses, the Texans are red hot riding into the playoffs, achieving five straight wins against favorable opponents and premier quarterbacks such as the Bills’ Josh Allen and the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes. The defense has been leading the way, holding Josh Allen to a passer rating of 67.4 and Mahomes to 19.4, both the lowest of their respective seasons. This Texans defense is easily rated first overall in the league, ranking third in passing defense and fifth in rushing defense, allowing a league low 266.3 yards a game. They’re also second in turnover margin at +11 and a rank of eighth in sacks with 36 total, the pass rush led by a dominant edge duo of Danielle Hunter and former third overall pick Will Anderson Jr, both top eight in sacks per player. 

The offense is definitely the weak link, ranking nineteenth in offensive yards. However, even with bottom-half offensive production, the Texans are still winning against quality opponents such as the 49ers, Jaguars, and Colts, all teams over eight wins as of week 14. Additionally, once quarterback C.J. Stroud regains complete health after suffering a concussion on November 2, the offense is expected to further improve. If this offense can consistently score around twenty points and limit turnovers as they have been, they will keep winning games because of the unmovable force that is this dominant defense. This provokes me to believe that even against elite competition, this defense will be able to carry this team to a possible Super Bowl. 

FRAUDS: Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles, the defending Super Bowl champs, seem to be having a repeat of their 2023 season, one that fans are forcing out of their memories due to an unfortunate late-season collapse, in which they fell from 10-1 to 11-6 and got blown out by the Buccaneers in the Wild Card round. This year, the Eagles are currently on a three-game losing streak, the most recent being a 22-19 overtime loss against the Chargers, in which former Super Bowl MVP quarterback Jalen Hurts threw four picks and somehow had two turnovers in one play in rather embarrassing fashion. 

Throughout this season, the Eagles’ offense has been extremely underwhelming, dropping from first the year prior, all the way down to 23rd in overall offense. The biggest regression on this offense is definitely All-Pro running back Saquon Barkley’s drop in production, falling from 2,005 rushing yards with 5.8 yards per carry to 862 rushing yards with 4.0 yards per carry. The previously biggest part of his game, explosive runs (20+ yard runs), is down heavily also, with five this year compared to the former insane number of 17, averaging one a game. Eagles starting quarterback Jalen Hurts is also having a tough accuracy problem, racking up interceptions with five in his last three, which, when paired up with a questionable offensive scheme led by first-year offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, leads to questionable results and preparation problems, a combination you never want to have this late in the year. 

The defense is slightly better, with an under-average overall defensive rating of 21st and a 7th-worst rushing defense. This problem was apparent against heavy rushing teams, such as the Chicago Bears, which featured two 120+ rushers, bulldozing them to victory. 

With three straight bad losses, the Eagles will need to turn it around fast to make a real push, something I don’t deem possible at the moment through their currently showcased abilities. They also will not get a chance to face real top teams these last four weeks, with the sole exception being the Buffalo Bills, who have a top rushing attack, which will be an amazing final test to see the Eagles’ playoff capabilities. Right now, however, I see them ending with the three seed facing the 49ers, losing quickly to a heavy and effective run game that the defense will be unable to contain, and the offense will not be able to respond to.

Contenders: Green Bay Packers

In August of the 2025 NFL season, just before it began, the Packers took advantage of a problematic contract dispute between Micah Parsons and the Dallas Cowboys, sending two first-round picks and more for the elite edge rusher. As such, the youngest team in the NFL is getting another elite young player, Parsons, to complement their other pass rusher, Rashan Gary. Acquiring Parsons was a move that the organization believed would elevate its team to championship level, and I believe it worked.

Let’s talk about this defense first. They are the fifth-best unit overall in the league, allowing the sixth least PPG at 19. Their passing defense is ranked seventh, their rushing defense is ranked ninth, and their turnover differential is eighth at +4. They are in the eleventh spot in sacks with 33, led by newly acquired Micah Parsons’ 12.5 takedowns. A pretty amazing unit, an incredible pass rush with a tough secondary led by safety Xavier McKinney. 

The offense is middle of the pack, however, with an 18th overall rating. Nonetheless, quarterback Jordan Love is having a career year with 3,028 passing yards and an exceptional touchdown-to-interception ratio of 22:4. With the resurgence of former first-rounder receiver Christian Watson from an ACL tear, this offense has found life, as he is awakening as a true alpha receiver, something the Packers have been missing previously. As a team, this unit is leading the NFC North, a difficult group containing three teams with 8+ wins, with an incredible 4-0 record in divisional games. 

If the Packers continue progressing in complementing each side of the ball these last four weeks, this team looks unbeatable down the stretch, especially with the force of a running game led by star running back Josh Jacobs and the incredible pass rush. This team will be sure to play bully ball, the best style of play for late-year football.

Conclusion

Overall, with the 2025 NFL season coming to an end and playoff football commencing, any team has a chance at winning the trophy. So no matter what the stats say or the odds against your favorite team are, keep cheering for them, as anything can happen on any given Sunday! However, remember to stay educated on the depths of the sport of football, as stats can tell you a great deal about what the future holds. I encourage you to take in my thoughts when watching these teams play and see how they respond to criticism and how quickly they fix their problems or maintain their strengths, as these four weeks will tell us a lot about what is to come in the 2025 NFL playoffs, and who will lift the Lombardi in San Francisco after Super Bowl 60!